Following a sluggish performance in 2023, global trade is anticipated to rebound, projecting a growth of 2.3% in 2024, aligning with the anticipated global output expansion, according to the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report.
In 2023, global trade in goods and services exhibited minimal growth, estimated at 0.2%, marking the slowest expansion outside global recessions in the past 50 years. Goods trade contracted, primarily influenced by declines in key advanced economies and a deceleration in Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs). This contraction marked the first sustained decline in goods trade outside a global recession in the past two decades.
The report indicates a normalization of trade patterns, with goods trade expected to resume expansion. However, the contribution of services to total trade growth is projected to decrease, reverting to patterns observed before the pandemic. Despite this, the responsiveness of global trade to global output is expected to remain lower than pre-pandemic levels in the near term, attributed to subdued investment growth.
Global tourist arrivals are forecasted to return to pre-pandemic levels in 2024, although recovery may lag in countries where reopening was delayed. The global trade growth forecast for 2024 has been revised down by 0.5 percentage points since June, influenced by weaker-than-expected growth in China and global investment. Consequently, the projected trade recovery for 2021-24 is considered the weakest following a global recession in the past half-century.
The World Bank’s projection aligns with the National Bureau of Statistics’ data on Nigeria’s total trade in the third quarter of 2023, standing at N18,804.29bn. Exports and imports increased significantly compared to the previous quarter and the corresponding quarter in 2022.
Despite the anticipated rebound in global trade, the World Bank notes a slowdown in overall global growth for the third consecutive year, projecting a decrease from 2.6% in the previous year to 2.4% in 2024. Developing economies are expected to grow at 3.9%, over one percentage point below the previous decade’s average, with low-income countries forecasted to grow at 5.5%, slightly weaker than previously expected.
