ABUJA – Nigeria’s headline inflation rate fell to 14.45% in November 2025, continuing a sustained downward trend for the eighth consecutive month this year, according to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The November figure represents a significant decline from the 16.05% recorded in October 2025 and a substantial 20.15 percentage-point drop from the 34.60% rate in November 2024.
A Sustained Disinflation Trend
The newly released Consumer Price Index (CPI) report confirms that inflation is on a consistent downward path. On a month-on-month basis, however, the rate at which prices increased accelerated slightly to 1.22% in November, up from 0.93% in October, indicating that while annual inflation is cooling, short-term price pressures persist.
This marks the longest sustained period of disinflation for Nigeria in recent years, offering a measure of economic relief amidst ongoing cost-of-living challenges.
Food and Core Inflation Show Mixed Signals
A deeper look at the data reveals a complex picture:
· Food Inflation: The annual food inflation rate saw a dramatic year-on-year decline to 11.08% in November 2025, down sharply from 39.93% in November 2024. This easing is attributed largely to “base effects” from last year’s exceptionally high prices. However, on a month-on-month basis, food prices rose by 1.13%, reversing a deflationary trend from October. Key drivers of the monthly increase included higher costs for staples like dried tomatoes, cassava tubers, ground pepper, eggs, crayfish, and fresh onions.
· Core Inflation: The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy costs, stood at 18.04% year-on-year. This indicates that underlying inflationary pressures, often linked to monetary factors and imported costs, remain more stubborn than the headline figure suggests.
Urban-Rural Divide and Broader Context
The report also highlights a persistent gap between urban and rural experiences. Rural headline inflation was recorded at 15.15% year-on-year, higher than the urban rate of 13.61%. On a monthly basis, price increases in rural areas (1.88%) outpaced those in urban centers (0.95%).
This sustained decline in inflation will likely be welcomed by policymakers and the Central Bank of Nigeria as validation of recent monetary tightening measures. However, analysts caution that the slight uptick in month-on-month inflation and persistent core inflation require continued vigilance to ensure the disinflation trend becomes entrenched and translates into tangible relief for households.
