Nigeria’s economy is now growing faster than its population for the first time in years, marking a significant shift that could improve living standards and boost per capita income if sustained.
The development was highlighted by former Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor, Muhammadu Sanusi II, at the 31st Nigerian Economic Summit, where he credited recent monetary reforms for restoring macroeconomic stability. “This is the first time that this economy will be growing faster than the population,” Sanusi said.
Recent data supports the trend. Nigeria’s real GDP growth has hovered between 3.9 and 4.2 percent, with the National Bureau of Statistics reporting a 3.89 percent year-on-year expansion in the first quarter of 2026. Full-year projections from the International Monetary Fund and private analysts put growth at about 4.1 to 4.2 percent.
In contrast, population growth is estimated at around 2.0 to 2.1 percent annually. Nigeria’s population, currently projected at about 242.4 million, continues to expand rapidly, adding nearly five million people each year.
The stronger economic performance has begun to reflect in per capita terms. Between 2024 and 2025, GDP per capita rose by roughly 19.5 percent, from $1,083 to $1,295, despite continued population increases. Overall economic expansion during that period outpaced demographic growth, reversing a trend seen between 2020 and 2023 when population growth consistently exceeded GDP gains.
Sanusi attributed the improvement to tighter monetary policies by the CBN, including efforts to reduce excess liquidity, stabilize the naira, and rebuild foreign reserves, which he said had climbed above $40 billion in recent months. Inflation, while still elevated at around 15 to 16 percent, has also moderated from earlier highs.
Analysts say the shift could signal the early stages of meaningful poverty reduction, but caution that growth must become more inclusive. Key sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and trade—major employers of Nigeria’s workforce—have lagged behind stronger-performing areas like services, oil and gas, and financial technology.
Despite the positive outlook, challenges remain. Nigeria continues to grapple with infrastructure deficits, insecurity in some regions, high borrowing costs, and widespread poverty. With a median age of about 18 and a fertility rate above four children per woman, the pressure to create jobs for a rapidly growing young population remains intense.
Demographic projections suggest Nigeria’s population could reach around 370 million by 2050, underscoring the need for sustained economic growth well above current levels to ensure long-term prosperity.
