Here’s a punchier Sun-style rewrite, keeping the professor’s claims clearly attributed:

Writing

Subsidy Return Will Crash 15 Northern States in 3 Months — OAU Prof

By Kenneth Atavti, Abuja

A professor at Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), Chief Tunji Ogunyemi, has warned that the restoration of petrol subsidy could trigger a severe financial crisis for more than 15 northern states within three months.

Ogunyemi, who spoke during an interview on Open Forum 360, a podcast hosted by Dare Adekanmbi, said returning to the subsidy regime would significantly reduce revenue accruing to the Federation Account, on which most states depend for their monthly allocations.

His warning followed a proposal by former Vice President and African Democratic Congress (ADC) presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, to restore petrol subsidy if elected president in 2027.

Ogunyemi described the proposal as potentially “calamitous”, arguing that a reduction in Federation Account revenues would weaken the ability of many states to meet their financial obligations.

“I think it is calamitous, to say the least, if we reverse the subsidy regime in Nigeria in favour of returning the subsidies,” he said.

According to him, reduced revenue into the Federation Account would have far-reaching consequences because the account remains the major source of funding for most states.

“The Federation Account is the jugular of more than 30 states in the federation. Only about four states in Nigeria can survive without the Federation Account,” he said.

Ogunyemi identified Lagos, Delta and Rivers among states he said could cope better without heavy dependence on monthly federal allocations, while citing Taraba as an example of a state that relies substantially on federal transfers.

“So if you now say reduce the accrual from account, I tell you more than about 15 states in the north will collapse. They will collapse within three months,” he warned.

The professor further cautioned that states could return to a situation where they struggle to pay workers’ salaries and pensions.

“The second is that states will return to a regime of incapacity to pay salaries, let alone pensions,” he said.

Ogunyemi also warned that reduced federal revenue could affect the Federal Government’s ability to finance its recurrent and capital expenditure.

He said between 60 and 70 per cent of the Federal Government’s total expenditure goes to recurrent spending, describing it as “consumption expenditure”.

“You reduce the revenue in that respect, you will see a situation in which government will not be able to support its minimum expenditure, let alone go for capital expenditure,” he said.

He added that a significant fall in government revenue could also affect the country’s ability to meet its debt obligations.

“The fourth and the final one is that Nigeria will not be able to meet its debt obligations,” Ogunyemi said.

According to him, failure to meet debt obligations could damage Nigeria’s financial standing and creditworthiness.

The OAU don also urged Atiku, given his experience as a former vice-president, to provide greater clarity on the economic implications of his proposed subsidy policy.

“I think it is playing to the gallery, with due respect to him. He should be a little less opaque about his policy,” Ogunyemi said.

“You don’t want to get political support through votes or more votes by wanting to cut the jugular of your country.”