Nigeria’s oil refining sector recorded its strongest quarterly growth on record, expanding by 43.94 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, driven largely by rising output from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) disclosed the figures in its Q2 2026 Gross Domestic Product report released on Monday. The data, based on rebased quarterly estimates, shows a sharp acceleration in refining activity compared with previous periods.
Oil refining growth reached 43.94 per cent in Q2 2026, following 37.46 per cent year-on-year growth in Q1 2025 under the rebased series. This marked a significant jump from the second half of 2024, when growth stood at 19.42 per cent in Q3 and 12.33 per cent in Q4, with full-year growth at 14.08 per cent.
In nominal terms, the value of refining activity more than doubled, rising from about ₦2.46 billion in Q1 2026 to ₦5.36 billion in Q2. The Q2 figure represented a 90.85 per cent nominal year-on-year increase.
The expansion coincides with the Dangote Refinery’s continued scale-up. Maintenance and expansion work completed in February 2026 raised the facility’s crude oil distillation capacity from 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 700,000 bpd. The higher capacity has supported a sharp rise in Nigeria’s refined petroleum product shipments to markets in Europe, Africa and Asia.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) further underscores the refinery’s dominance. Domestic crude oil and condensate supply to local refiners reached 53.7 million barrels in Q2 2026, achieving 97.4 per cent performance under the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation. Dangote accounted for the overwhelming majority of volumes offered, accepting 52.6 million barrels during the quarter.
The surge in domestic refining has also reshaped Nigeria’s petroleum trade. Seaborne refined product exports, particularly to Europe, have risen substantially, while imports have declined markedly, moving the country closer to self-sufficiency in refined fuels.
Industry analysts note that sustained high utilisation at the Dangote facility, combined with planned further expansion, positions Nigeria to strengthen its role as a regional supplier of refined petroleum products while reducing reliance on imports.
