Nigeria’s upstream regulator is accelerating the pace of oil licensing rounds and introducing stricter “drill-or-drop” conditions in an attempt to reverse more than a decade of stagnant production.
Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), said the country will hold licensing rounds at least once a year — and possibly twice a year — with each process designed to unlock 300,000 to 600,000 barrels per day of new potential output.
The move comes as Nigeria continues to struggle to lift production significantly above 1.5 million barrels per day, a level that has not been breached for 12 years despite repeated government targets.
Eyesan, who took office during the 2025 bid round, said future auctions will be completed in six to seven months. The next round is expected to open by early October 2026 and will include 13 blocks left unawarded from the previous process, along with new deepwater, shallow-water and frontier acreage.
Why the Change in Approach?
The 2025 licensing round offered 50 blocks and awarded 37. While the regulator projects those awards could eventually add about 300,000 b/d, Eyesan acknowledged that some assets were put on the market prematurely.
“I knew we were going to have a problem with some of the blocks,” she said, adding that the commission would now prioritise only “viable assets.”
The regulator is also tightening the terms of new licences. Shallow-water blocks awarded in 2025 carry a three-year initial term, while deepwater and frontier licences run for five years. The structure is intended to force operators to drill or return the acreage — a direct response to years of passive ownership that has left many concessions undeveloped.
Local Operators Take Centre Stage
With major international companies scaling back their onshore presence, the NUPRC is deliberately targeting newer Nigerian and independent players. Eyesan cited Renaissance and First E&P as examples of the kind of operators the commission wants to attract.
Deepwater remains the preferred destination for larger international investment. The regulator is targeting $30–50 billion in new capital for 22 deepwater projects by 2030, supported by tax incentives and what Eyesan described as a shift in how investors view West Africa following the US-Iran conflict.
Domestic Refining Adds New Pressure
The growth of Nigeria’s refining capacity, led by the Dangote plant, has created a competing demand for local crude. Eyesan supports the broader policy goal of directing more Nigerian oil to domestic refineries by 2030, but she is introducing a trading platform for Domestic Crude Supply Obligations so that companies can buy and sell compliance certificates rather than being locked into rigid delivery volumes.
She also left room for commercial reality, saying she would not criticise Dangote if the refinery chooses cheaper imported grades over higher-cost Nigerian crude.
The Core Question
Nigeria has set a formal target of 3 million barrels per day by 2030 and Eyesan believes the country could eventually reach 4 million b/d within eight to ten years. Whether faster licensing rounds and stricter licence terms can deliver that increase will depend on how quickly awarded blocks move from paper to production — a test the industry has failed repeatedly in the past decade.
