The Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) has rejected claims that the country’s persistent power shortfall is caused by transmission constraints, insisting that official data shows the problem lies largely with electricity generation, not the national grid.
In a statement issued Thursday, the company cited the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) First Quarter 2026 Report to counter assertions by the Association of Power Generation Companies (APGC) that over 2,500 megawatts of electricity is stranded daily due to grid limitations.
TCN said the widely referenced “4,500MW grid capacity” figure is misleading, noting that the same NERC report shows that average available generation capacity declared by GenCos in Q1 2026 was 4,457.96MW.
“The figure attributed to the grid is, in fact, what power plants themselves declared as available for dispatch,” the company said.
The transmission firm added that its verified wheeling capacity stands at 8,700MW, significantly higher than the output currently generated across the system.
To support its claim, TCN pointed to a record peak transmission of 5,801.84MW achieved on March 4, 2025, alongside other peaks above 5,500MW, arguing that “a grid limited to 4,500MW could not, as a matter of physics, have carried these volumes.”
According to the company, the real constraint lies in low generation availability, with NERC data showing a Plant Availability Factor of just 32.72 per cent in Q1 2026, meaning more than two-thirds of installed capacity was unavailable for dispatch.
The report highlighted several plants with extremely low output, including Alaoji with 0.00 per cent availability and others such as Rivers, Ibom Power and Sapele Steam operating below 3 per cent.
“These are gas supply, mechanical and operational constraints at the power stations themselves,” TCN said, referencing industry disclosures that gas supply to thermal plants has dropped below 43 per cent of requirements.
Hydropower generation also declined by 28.8 per cent during the period due to seasonal water shortages and maintenance outages at key facilities, including Kainji, Jebba and Shiroro dams.
TCN further argued that grid performance indicators contradict claims of large-scale stranded power, noting that the system recorded a load factor of 92.26 per cent in Q1 2026.
“On average, only about 7.74 per cent of available capacity—approximately 345MW—went undispatched, far below the 2,500 to 4,000MW being cited,” the company said.
The firm also dismissed claims that transmission losses account for over 1,200MW daily, stating that NERC’s audited data puts transmission losses at 7.96 per cent, equivalent to about 327MW.
On recent grid disturbances, TCN clarified that the January 27, 2026 system collapse referenced in reports was linked to inadequate reactive power from the generation side, while a separate January 23 incident was traced to a transmission asset fault at Sapele.
The company also attributed revenue losses in the sector largely to distribution inefficiencies, pointing to a 37.44 per cent Aggregate Technical, Commercial and Collection (ATC&C) loss recorded by distribution companies in Q1 2026, alongside a ₦24.95 billion remittance shortfall.
Under the current market structure, TCN noted, distribution companies are obligated to pay for available power whether or not they take delivery, suggesting that payment shortfalls are more closely tied to collection inefficiencies than transmission capacity.
While acknowledging that the power sector remains under pressure, TCN maintained that mischaracterising the problem could delay effective solutions.
“Taken together, the data places the origin of Nigeria’s ‘stranded power’ overwhelmingly at the generation gate, not the transmission gate,” the company said.
TCN reaffirmed its commitment to continued investment in grid infrastructure, including transformers, transmission lines and substations, while urging stakeholders to base public discourse on verifiable regulatory data.
The company added that sustained collaboration among generation, transmission and distribution players remains critical to improving electricity supply nationwide.
